Also a great point.

I’m not ruling anything out at this point. It could be a classic case of a greedy corporation pushing out the real artists in order to exploit the art. It could be that the devs (specifically the 3 guys involved in the lawsuit) got lazy after they got paid. It could be both, neither, something else entirely. Honestly with how things go these days I’m just grateful there hasn’t been anything distasteful enough tl give me qualms about playing Subnautica.

I don’t believe for one second they are actually letting this guy do anything. He’s a fall guy. He’s going to get fired when something bad happens and they need someone to fire.

So either someone else is running it behind-the-scenes (like how Musk wasn’t technically the head of DOGE) or the department ceased functioning (they could be inviting a terrorist attack as an excuse- go to war, declare emergency powers, cancel elections, etc).

Or they just actually gave this guy this job. But that just seems so incredibly unlikely.

After the last decade or more of people complaining about greedy publishers forcing devs to release half-baked messes too early (Cyberpunk, No Man’s Sky, etc), it feels like I’m living in a bizarro world to see so much criticism for a publisher delaying a game to (allegedly) make it better.

The public does not have enough information to judge the relative probabilities. Krafton has that information and has every incentive to release the game as soon as possible, and they still chose to delay.

That’s how bonuses work. If it was guaranteed regardless of how the company perfroms, it wouldn’t be a bonus.

It is entirely possible that, even if they had released Subnautica 2 in its current state right now, it may not meet sales expectations and no one would get a bonus anyways. They could make a great game and the marketing team drops the ball- no bonus. They could market like crazy but the game sucks- no bonus. Data breaches or corporate embezzlement or world war- there are tons of factors that could prevent them from meeting those goals.

The amount is also important because it is being used by the position to try to support an argument that Krafton made this move in order to avoid paying the bonus. When in reality the cost of that bonus payment is probably a tiny fraction of what they are losing by delaying the game.

Personally I hate bonuses, and I have always advocated at my company for more of the payroll to be structured as salary. But other colleagues of mine really like bonuses. They like the increased reward and risk involved. It comes down to risk aversion, so I’m not going to call those people or employers evil or anything just because it’s not my preference.

I’m also not defending Krafton’s decision to replace the leadership and delay the game. Personally I suspect that they did so in order to add more monetization to the game, but that’s impossible to know until reviews start to get published. I will say that no one should pre-order the game, but I would also say no one should pre-order any game. Why are people pre-ordering games at all?

And what if Krafton is right? What if the game is actually in a state right now that would disappoint customers? Seems like for the last decade every videogame community has been complaining about games being released as unfinished and buggy meses. No Man’s Sky and Cyberpunk for example. Any time Nintendo delays a game, all their fans applaud and share the Miyamoto meme (“a delaged game is eventually good, but a rushed game is forever bad”). So I’m really surprised to see that a publisher has come out and admitted that they think the game needs more time to meet customer expectations and instead of applauding them for taking the loss the Internet is instead promoting these weird conspiracy theories that don’t add up to explain how it’s actually bad.

The $250 million bonus was due to kick in if Unknown Worlds hit certain revenue targets by the end of 2025

The whole key to this is how the bonus is structured, and that is unknown still. They very well may have just been something like “10% of net profit, capped at $250 million”.

If the whole cost of the game was JUST $250 million, that would put it in the [top-15](The $250 million bonus was due to kick in if Unknown Worlds hit certain revenue targets by the end of 2025) most expensive games we have official numbers for. This doesn’t pass the smell test.

Bloomberg reported that the bonus was tied to revenue targets. So the $250,000 estimate must be estimating significantly higher revenues for them in 2025.

What you posted is just the sales on 1 platform for 1 game, whixh came out in 2018 when games were cheaper.

Is it still more expensive if they just shelve it

Yes. Like, it’s not even a question it’s more expensive to delay it. First of all, they are choosing to pay for 6-12 months of extra development, which alone is probably several times more money than the bonus that they would have paid out. I don’t know what their payroll is, but we don’t need to know because math.

If the bonus was for 1/2 annual salary per person (which would be insanely high), then the cost of the bonus would be the same as 6 months of additional payroll. Meaning that with any longer delay than 6 months or smaller bonus structure than 1/2 of annual salary, it becomes more expensive to delay the game. Both of which are incredibly likely in my opinion.

And that’s just salary. It’s possible the studio was planning on laying people off after release, but more likely that they would have moved to a other project that is currently wrapping up pre-production. So this is causing a cascading effect unless they hire additional staff to catch up.

Then you have marketing costs. The rule of thumb in the industry is that half the overall budget is marketing. There are all sorts of contracts they probably had- digital stuff like banner ads on websites, on the console digital storefronts, partnerships with twitch streamers and YouTubers and review websites, physical stuff like cardboard cutouts and fliers. They may have started printing for boxes for physical releases (though I’m not sure whether this game would have had one or not). They may have started acquiring merch inventory: shirts and stickers and backpacks and flashlights and more perhaps. Some of these contracts they may be able to postpone or cancel, but they certainly aren’t getting back 100% of what they paid.

And in all of this time they aren’t getting the huge revenue spike they were expecting. The vast, vast majority of a game’s revenue comes at launch (excluding live services, which this hopefully will not have). They need to survive another year on the trickle of revenue coming in from the sales of their other games, or Krafton may need to pump more of their own money into Unknown Worlds. Or debt.

I’m at least willing to wait until it gets reviews to make a sound judgement.

I don’t think the bonus would have been a big enough reason to delay the game. Delaying a game like this relatively last-minute and giving it an extra year of development is waaaay more expensive than the bonuses would have been. That’s a gigantic revenue spike they were expecting to get this year and now have to push out to next year, and they may well end up paying out similar bonuses next year too.

My suspicion, from the history of Steve Papoutsis, is that Kraftom wanted to add in anti-player elements and the original founders refused. Probably micro transactions, or maybe even having a bigger multiplayer focus to make it closer to a live-service game. Some mechanism to get money from customers beyond the original purchase. I suspect crap like that will be reason enough not to buy the game when it comes out.

It only takes 1 badly made mod to make Skyrim unstable. I’m not sure what information you would be looking to gain from that.

He probably “works” more than that, because for him his “work” looks like riding a private jet, golfing with business associates, fancy lunches and dinners, or sending emails from his phone on the beach.

Is there enough value in AI to justify burning down the planet for it?

Please enlighten me then- what does Scarecrow Video do that makes them special? From a quick Internet search it looks like they re-organized into a non-profit, got officially recognized as a museum by the state, have relied on Kickstarter campaigns to stay running, and seem to still be struggling to keep the lights on. So just from skimming their website it seems like less of a business and more of a preserved piece of nostalgia and novelty.

Don’t get me wrong- I’m very much in favor of physical media and media preservation. Today’s streaming and digital “purchase” landscape has a ton of issues. I just think the solution to that is public libraries, and it looks like Scarecrow is trying to be a hybrid of a library, museum, and business with the business part failing.

It’s really easy to declare an emergency and claim that the Executive branch needs expanded Emergency powers when you stop all of the emergency prevention mechanisms.

Trump has a history of attacking mail-in and absentee ballots. Sure would be a shame if we HAD to vote in-person but a pandemic broke out. That at least makes it easy to suppress votes, but could even be used as a justification to “postpone” elections.

Same thing with going to war with Iran, or suffering any one of a number of disasters the Trump administration seems to be actively inviting.

Video rental is just plain outdated. Streaming as it is today has a lot of problems, but they are ones that could be easily solved through regulation if regulators ever had the appetite. These stores went out of business because technology made their industry obsolete. I bet most people would have to do a little work to even play a DVD or Blu-Ray today. Maybe dig out an old device and hook it up, or use a laptop with a disc drive. Maybe a gaming console, but there have been a lot on the market for a while now that don’t have optical drives. There’s enthusiasts of course- including people who still keep VCR’s and laser disc players and even people with their own reel-to-reel projectors, but they’re a tiny minority.

Friendly’s I only went to once and it was unremarkable casual dining. That industry DOES have a problem where private equity keeps on buying, looting, and destroying companies, but I’m also hopeful that can open up more space for small businesses instead. I’ll pass on this one.

My memories of RadioShack were that it was cheap junk that was overpriced, but often the only reasonable option unless you wanted to order online or through a catalog from somewhere that could take months to arrive. I do wonder what the world would have been like if RadioShack had positioned itself as a repaor parts supplier and lobbied for Right to Repair legislation. Probably a stretch of the imagination.

Circuit City… For some reason I thought they went out of business largely due to embezzlement, but when I look forward that now I can’t find anything so maybe I’m thinking of another company? Best Buy seems to be struggling to compete with Amazon and Wal-Mart still today, so I don’t think Circuit City could have lasted much longer than it did either way.

Party City and Toys-R-Us are the 2 that make me upset, because both were successful businesses ruined by Private Equity. Not that I want to simo for these corporations, but what PE has been doing to so many industries in the past decade is absolutely disgusting. Id I had to choose one to bring back I’d say Party City because a lot of the custom and specific party supplies there aren’t going to be stocked by your local Target or Wal-Mart, and that’s the kind of thing you’d prefer to see in person rather than order online.

I remember the town I was living in around 2011-2014. They had a privately owned franchise of a regional grocery store. That grocery chain was also starting to roll out a new, affiliated store with a different name that was designed to a more "luxury* store. They only opened a handful, and they were usually much larger and much more expensive, with TONS of options. Like whole aisles dedicated to just fancy olives. Trying to compete with Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s.

When I first moved to that town, there was a nearby strip mall being built from the ground up. At that time, the local old grocery store was perfectly fine. As soon as the strip mall with the big premium location opened up, I immediately noticed that the produce in the local store declined. Same price, much lower quality. The good quality stuff was being shuffled to the premium store and sold for 2-3x the price.

What else do these all have in common?

They all have art styles that are purposefully designed to be really cheap and easy to make. The same choices that helped these studios crank out hours upon hours of formulaic content also helps the rule 34 artists.