I’m not convinced capital is in a position to offer concessions in much of europe, given the crisis of capitalism; referring particularly to the plummeting global competetiveness of western economies, that puts us (those of us in the core) in a fundamentally novel political situation, just as you say in your second paragraph

distraction becomes a risk when concessions are a possibility, but I’m not convinced european capitalists are in a position to offer any – which is (potentially) why we see car factories being turned to military production, which is insulated from global markets in a way consumer goods production is not